Blog: Dan Power

DSS for Small Businesses

Fri, 01 Jan 2010 07:28:56 -0700

A staff member at the local business magazine approached me about writing an article on decision support for managers in small businesses. I hesitantly agreed and now my deadline is approaching.

I am contemplating discussing small scale applications built using tools like MS Excel and MS Access and hosted applications like Salesforce.com. Also, in some lines of business you can find packaged applications with some decision support capabilities.

The big problem is that in 800-1000 words it is easy to overstate the need and the possibilities. My limited experience with small businesses has focused on cost estimating applications for small manufacturing companies, bid generators for catering companies, and construction cost estimators for residential.

Customer relationship management and improved data-driven forecasting are also promising applications for many small businesses.

I'll give this some additional thoughts in the new year. Comments, suggestions appreciated.

Chrome and Windows 7

Tue, 24 Nov 2009 17:06:06 -0700

I am a regular user of the Chrome browser from Google and I have been reading about the Chrome OS. I have also been trying Windows 7.

I like the speed and clean look of the Chrome browser. I also like seeing my most frequently used pages when I add a browser tab.

What does the browser and operating system innovation mean for decision support?

1) expanded capabilities in the user interface. I have always liked touch screen applications.

2) more focus on computing in "the cloud" and web-based applications.

3) more emphasis on mobility and computing "anytime and anywhere"

Have a Happy Thanksgiving.

Decision Support and Chaos Theory

Fri, 06 Nov 2009 13:08:03 -0700

Recently, I reread Jurassic Park, a 1990 science fiction novel, written by Michael Crichton. Blog readers may recall from the book or film that mathematician and chaos theorist, Ian Malcolm, forecasted the failure of the amusement park that showcased dinosaurs recreated from DNA in fossils and in mosquitoes captured in amber.

Malcolm provides a layman's explanation of chaos theory. In Wikipedia, "Chaos theory is a branch of mathematics which studies the behavior of certain dynamical systems that may be highly sensitive to initial conditions. This sensitivity is popularly referred to as the butterfly effect. As a result of this sensitivity, which manifests itself as an exponential growth of error, the behavior of chaotic systems appears to be random. That is, tiny differences in the starting state of the system can lead to enormous differences in the final state of the system even over fairly small timescales."

Reading Crichton again and thinking about unpredictability has lead me to ponder what chaos theory means for business forecasting. What dynamical business systems do or might behave as a chaotic system? Are production and economic systems inherently chaotic and unpredictable?

My current thinking is that long supply chains are the primary dynamical systems we need to be concerned about for computerized decision support. The current efforts to produce and distribute H1N1 vaccine suggest the unpredictability of multilevel, long time horizon supply chains. Are there other dynamical systems of interest? Perhaps mortgage lending, derivatives, risk related systems??

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaos_theory

Preview Decision Support Basics

Mon, 19 Oct 2009 11:41:39 -0700

The printed version of my new book, Decision Support Basics, should be available November 10, 2009 for USD $25. You can preview the front materials and first 12 pages at http://businessexpertpress.com/books/decision-support-basics .

The E-Book is available now for USD$15.

Power, D.J. Decision Support Basics, Business Expert Press, 2009.

Because of increasing complexity, rapid change and risk, managers have an obligation to shareholders to learn about and understand computerized decision support systems (DSS). Managers must know much more about information technology solutions and especially computerized decision support. This book is targeted to busy managers and MBA students who need to grasp the basics of computerized decision support. Some of the topics covered include: What is a DSS? What do managers need to know about computerized decision support? And how can managers identify opportunities to create innovative DSS? Overall the book addresses 35 fundamental questions that are relevant to understanding computerized decision support.

In a short period of time managers can "get up to speed" on decision support, analytics and business intelligence. The book then provides a quick reference to important recurring questions. The questions are arranged in a logical order from more general questions to more specific, including specialized questions of interest to managers and future managers.

Goodbye SL

Sun, 11 Oct 2009 07:39:43 -0700

A few months ago I stopped participating in Second Life. I still feel the withdrawal pangs, but my first life is much better because of the change. I am exploring the open sim project for decision support projects so my interest continues in visual simulations. The fantasy and social aspects of Second Life are now gone for me and that is good. I will no longer be writing about that venue.

DSSResources.com 10th Anniversary

Tue, 08 Sep 2009 08:24:19 -0700

The DSS Research Resources home page started during late summer 1995 as a way of organizing the vast amounts of information on decision support systems (DSS) found during Webcrawler and Alta Vista searches for DSS-related web sites.

From October 2, 1995 to January 1, 1997, the DSS Research Resources website transmitted more than 300,000 files to visitors in more than 50 countries. In 1997, almost 1500 files per day were transmitted from a Quarterdeck WebStar server running on an Apple Macintosh IIci at http://power.cba.uni.edu/ and from a SUN Sparc 4 workstation running Netscape Commerce server at URL http://dss.cba.uni.edu. By 1997, the DSS Research Resources home page had been transmitted to more than 12000 visitors.

The name of the site was changed to DSS Resources in Spring 1998. The domain name dssresources.com was registered at that time with InterNIC. In late 1998 and early January 1999 DSS Resources moved to a second generation design with a new logo and format. The revised DSS Resources home page was posted January 15, 1999.

My son Alex and I activated the DSSResources.COM web site on 09/28/1999.

DSSResources.com is available 24-hours-a-day, 7-days-a-week. It serves thousands of people world-wide. Help us build and maintain this site.

Next-Gen BI?

Thu, 03 Sep 2009 14:56:26 -0700

The cover story for the Aug. 31, 2009 Information Week is titled "Next-Gen BI Is Here" by Doug Henschen.

What does Doug think is next-gen BI?

more timely data and more future oriented analysis

He sees the following driving factors:

1. predictive analytics

2. stream processing technologies for real-time performance monitoring

3. in-memory apllications for faster analysis

4. software as a service (SaaS)

These technology developments will enhance operational BI. Historical data warehouses or classic BI is still needed and important. So improved technology, but not next-gen BI.

Doug is the editor of IntelligentEnterprise.com.

Boiling Frogs

Wed, 08 Jul 2009 19:28:54 -0700

According to Charles Handy in The Age of Unreason, "People think they are clever at adapting to the changing world; however, people must do more than just adapt to change. They must jump out of their changing world and take charge of it if they are not to be boiled alive while they sleep."

With data warehousing we need to jump out of the relational database model. Moving normalized data to a data warehouse sets us up for failure. The data warehouse needs to be as carefully planned as the transaction database. Now is the time to stop relying on historical, normalized data from transaction databases to build a data warehouse. To stop the reliance on insufficient, convenient data, companies need to start collecting data specifically for decision support.

What do we need to know to make decisions in each decision process that is important to our firm? Ask that question, then get and store the data.

We have relied too much on convenient historical operating data. We will suffer the fate of the frog!

Decision Support Basics contents

Mon, 18 May 2009 11:40:54 -0700

I promised to list the 35 fundamental questions related to decision support discussed in my upcoming book, Decision Support Basics .

Chapter 1: Decision support systems revisited

1. What is the need for decision support?
2. What technology skills do managers need?
3. What is the history of computerized decision support?
4. What is the theory of computerized decision support systems?
5. What is different about modern decision support systems?

Chapter 2: Decision support concepts and key terms

6. What is a decision support system?
7. Do we (still) need Executive Information Systems?
8. What is business intelligence?
9. What is operational business intelligence?
10. Are BAM and BPM decision support systems?
11. What is knowledge management?

Chapter 3: Recognizing types of decision support

12. What is decision automation?
13. What is a computer supported special study?
14. What are the different types of DSS?
15. What are basic characteristics of a decision support system?
16. What are the features of a communications-driven DSS?
17. What are the features of a data-driven DSS?
18. What are the features of a document-driven DSS?
19. What are the features of a knowledge-driven DSS?
20. What are the features of a model-driven DSS?
21. What type of DSS is it?

Chapter 4: Decision support benefits and tradeoffs

22. What are potential benefits of decision support?
23. Can DSS provide a competitive advantage?
24. Can DSS impact decision outcomes?
25. What are substitutes for computerized decision support?
26. What are possible disadvantages of building and using DSS?

Chapter 5: Identifying decision support opportunities

27. What is decision support planning?
28. What is a decision process audit?
29. Is reengineering necessary to build an effective DSS?
30. What is a decision support system feasibility study?
31. What factors influence DSS implementation risk?
32. What are tradeoffs of outsourcing enterprise-wide DSS?

Chapter 6: Looking forward to innovative DSS

33. Do you need formative or summative evaluation?
34. What are ethical issues associated with DSS?
35. Can project champions reduce resistance to a new system?

Decision Support Basics

Sat, 16 May 2009 08:31:28 -0700

I have not been blogging recently because of a busy schedule. Yesterday, May 15, 2009, was the deadline for getting the draft of my new book to the Production Editor at Business Expert Press (http://businessexpertpress.com/). It was an intense work period, but I met the deadline and I should have corrections from the copy editor in about a month. The book titled Decision Support Basics is scheduled for September 15, 2009 publication. The book advertising page on the web is at URL http://businessexpertpress.com/node/110.

The book addresses 35 fundamental questions that are relevant to understanding computerized decision support. In an upcoming post I will list the 35 questions.

Table of Contents

Introduction

Chapter 1: Decision support systems revisited

Chapter 2: Decision support concepts and key terms

Chapter 3: Recognizing types of decision support

Chapter 4: Decision support benefits and tradeoffs

Chapter 5: Identifying decision support opportunities

Chapter 6: Looking forward to innovative DSS

Glossary

Have a meeting in Iowa

Thu, 19 Mar 2009 09:09:51 -0700

Let me host your first virtual meeting on my island in Second Life called Iowa. I live in real life Iowa and Iowa Metaverse, Inc. promotes technology entrepreneurship among other objectives (see iowametaverse.com).

No charge for BeyeNETWORK readers for your first meeting.

Dan

power@dssresources.com

Modern Decision Support

Thu, 05 Mar 2009 17:34:53 -0700

Business computerized decision support is almost 40 years old. Today's decision support is similar to the first generation systems in some ways and very different in so many ways. After 40 years of building and deploying systems and 40 years of technology developments, we have many diverse DSS serving many specialized purposes. In a broad way, thousands of support systems, including data warehouses, business intelligence, forecasting systems, cost estimation models, knowledge-driven advisors, and even document management systems, support business decision makers.

What should managers and MBA students know about modern decision support? I suggest the following columns at DSSResources.com:

What is a modern decision support system?

What do managers need to know about DSS?

Why study computerized decision support?

What are the advantages and disadvantages of computerized decision support?

What are substitutes for computerized decision support?

How has and will Moore\'s Law impact computerized decision support?

What is the technology adoption curve? Is it relevant to DSS?

What are Decision Support technology trends?

How does organization level impact decision support?

Can DSS provide firms with a sustainable competitive advantage? If so, how?

What companies have gained a competitive advantage by building a DSS?

Is there an "information culture" that encourages building Decision Support Systems?

How can managers identify opportunities to create innovative DSS?

What factors impact decision support project implementation risk?

Can DSS impact decision outcomes?

What is the output of a decision support system?

Is reengineering needed to build an effective DSS?

How can DSS impact steps in a general decision process model?

What evaluation criteria are used for decision support projects?

How should decision support projects be managed?

What are advantages and disadvantages of data warehouses?

Is it advantageous to outsource development and operation of Decision Support Systems?

How important is flexibility for a DSS?

How does the use of a Communications-Driven DSS impact a decision-making meeting?

What are benefits of Interorganizational DSS?

What is real-time decision support?

What are challenges of real-time decision support?

What are examples of decision support systems in global enterprises?

What are sources of data for building a data-driven DSS?

What is the expanded DSS framework?

What are the components of a decision support system?

What are the features of a communications-driven DSS?

What are the features of a data-driven DSS?

What is operational business intelligence?

Where can I find information about KPIs for building DSS in different industries?

What are the features of a document-driven DSS?

What are the features of a knowledge-driven DSS?

What are the features of a model-driven DSS?

What decisions are appropriate for model-driven DSS?

Questions about Business Intelligence Implementation

Thu, 19 Feb 2009 11:58:36 -0700

Gartner, IBM Cognos and others have discussed "flawless business inteligence" and "avoiding fatal flaws". So why another discussion? Perhaps a checklist will help improve system implementation and discussion with vendors.

Question #1: What is the purpose of the proposed system? Reporting, ad hoc query and analysis, performance monitoring?

Question #2: Who wants the system? Will they really use it?

Question #3: Is there a data quality problem? How serious is the problem?

Question #4: What vendors are "best in class"? Are you wedded to your current vendor of transaction systems?

Question #5: Do you have a realistic schedule for the evaluation and implementation process?

Question #6: Do you have in-house staff to work on the project? If not, are you comfortable outsourcing to contractors or vendor staff a key decision support capability?

Question #7: Did the person suggesting the project just meet with a vendor or attend a tradeshow? Are they excited about dashboards?

Please ask these questions and review the answers carefully as part of a feasibility study. If the decision is to proceed with a project, invite vendors to respond to a structured request.

International Conference on DSS Aug 5-6, 2009

Wed, 14 Jan 2009 16:15:11 -0700

International Conference on DSS, San Francisco, California USA, August 5-6, 2009, papers, panels due March 1, 2009.

DSS 1979 - 2009 - 2039: Reflecting on Yesterday, Assessing Today, Envisioning Tomorrow (http://cob.fsu.edu/mis/icdss/) is the theme of the upcoming International Conference on Decision Support Systems (ICDSS 2009).

The theme of this two day International Conference is to reflect on the past thirty years of DSS activity, assess the current best practices in teaching and research, and envision the next thirty years of it. Concurrently, we will recognize the twentieth anniversary of the founding of the International Society for Decision Support Systems (ISDSS). The conference will be held on August 5-6, 2009, the days prior to the Americas Conference on Information Systems (August 6-9), at the same conference venue (San Francisco Marriott).

The conference will consist of three segments. The first, Reflecting on Yesterday, will examine the rich history of DSS research and teaching by drawing on contributions from the field's luminaries. Contributions from pioneering DSS researchers and teachers have been solicited. Their responses will be synthesized by the program committee into an overview of the DSS field that outlines the accomplishments made and the challenges that exist.

The second segment, Assessing Today, and the third segment, Envisioning Tomorrow, will consist of presentations based on papers submitted in each category. A number of presentations will be scheduled from industry-based thought leaders regarding the application of new approaches to support future decision making environments.

Important Dates

Submissions Due: March 1, 2009 (send to paradice@fsu.edu)

Acceptances Notified: April 30, 2009

Camera Ready Papers Due: July 1, 2009; the Conference book will be published by Springer in the Annals of Information Systems series.

Conference: August 5 & 6, 2009

Program Committee

Frada Burstein, Monash University, Australia

David Paradice, Florida State University, USA

Dan Power, University of Northern Iowa, USA

Ramesh Sharda, Oklahoma State University, USA

check http://dssresources.com/news/2724.php

Americas Conference on Information Systems: http://amcis2009.sfsu.edu/ & http://amcis2009.aisnet.org/

Technorati Tags: International Conference on DSS 2009, Business Intelligence, Decision Support .

Economic KPIs for Obama

Sat, 10 Jan 2009 09:00:09 -0700

Nancy Killefer, a partner at management consulting firm McKinsey and Co. and former Treasury official in the Clinton Administration, was named Chief Performance Officer to cut waste by President-elect Obama on Thursday, January 8, 2009.

It seems reasonable that a Chief Performance Officer with a management background should identify "key performance indicators" or KPIs based upon Obama's goals. So what should the KPIs be?

1) Net job creation. Obama promises to create 3 million jobs in the next 18 months or so. What is the gain in jobs versus loss of jobs? Obama wants most new jobs in the private sector so a measure of the sector of jobs that are created and average wage of new jobs.

2) Health costs. Obama wants to control rising health care costs. There should be health care cost indexes perhaps on a regional basis that can be used.

3) Health insurance coverage. Obama wants to have everyone in the US covered by some type of health insurance, but he wants a mix of insurance sources. Perhaps measure the % insured or the % uninsured.

4) Price stability index. Obama wants to stimulate the economy and avoid inflation. Perhaps some easily understandable measures like the average price of a gallon of milk by region or a market basket of groceries.

5) Number of foreclosures. Obama wants to get out of the current subprime mortgage crisis and keep people in their homes if possible. Some people paid too much and others falsified loan documents, some people have lost jobs. Perhaps a measure of loans adjusted by lenders or average housing price index is a better metric for Obama's policy goals.

6) Balance of Payments. More goods are imported than exported. Obama wants the US to be globally competitive and have a positive balance of payments. He certainly doesn't want to use tariffs or falling real wages to accomplish this goal. The hope is that increased productivity, innovation and entrepreneurship will lead to increased competitiveness. So perhaps monitor the cateogries of the trade deficit and monitor incentives for increased productivity like spending on new plant, technology and equipment.

7) Fossil fuel consumption. Obama wants to encourage creation of a "green" economony. Monitoring average fuel economy of vehicles, percent of energy from alternative sources like wind and solar, and investment in energy efficiency like better insulation would also help policy makers.

8) Government's cost per person. What is the average cost of operating government for each person in the US. Ideally if we are reducing waste, the cost of government per person should go down. This should be a measure of the "administrative overhead" for government programs.

Ideally about 7 to 8 policy oriented KPIs is all we want and we need specific targets in each area, both short run and long run, and investments and plans to impact the KPIs.

Setting KPIs for Obama is a difficult task. We shall see if Obama, Killefer and the bureaucrats in Washington can figure out performance monitoring.

Technorati Tags: Killefer & Obama, KPI Government, Business Intelligence, Decision Support .