Blog: Dan Power

« Tracking Presidential Candidates | Main | Real World Decision Making -- 72 hours and counting »

Decision making -- 126 hours and counting

Iowans will meet in Presidential caucuses all around the state at 6:30 pm on Thursday, January 3, 2008. That is about 126 hours from now and counting.

In 1988, approximately 230,000 Iowans participated in the caucuses in a heavily contested event. In 2000, only 147, 000 members of both parties (61,000 Democrats and 86,000 Republicans) participated. In 2004, 125,000 Iowa Democrats caucused. Turnout for 2008 should be similar, about 230,000 total. Democrats will caucus in 2,131 precints around the State.

One can easily see how the Web has changed Iowa caucus politics, from finding precincts and caucus locations, to candidate information sites and finding places to meet candidates. Some tourists are even coming to Iowa just to travel around and meet candidates. A large number of out-of-state volunteers are also busy.

The Voter Relationship Management (VRM) systems most likely vary tremendously. A few years ago, I saw the Iowa Democratic Party system, but I have not seen those of any candidates. I do receive duplicate targeted mailings from Democrats and Republicans. Campaigns get caucus attendee lists from the state political parties. As I recall, the parties sell the data in digital form to candidates and the counties sell or provide data on registered voters to legitimate users. Certainly the state parties have data on registered voters. Targeting is enhanced with extensive phone calling and possibly purchased data. Some candidates are doing targeting better than others.

Well the races are heating up. Last night I spent an hour and a half at an event for Senator Joe Biden at the Waterloo Center for the Arts. With about 100 others, including 2 of my sons, I listened attentively to Senator Biden and even asked a question about his position on "evil corporations" and asked for a comment on John Edwards' inflamatory rhetoric. Biden said the right things, he is a centrist and a pragmatist and he has extensive foreign policy experience. Right now I'm switching from Senator Hillary Clinton to Senator Biden. The polls show Biden at about 3% (4.5% margin of error). Each percentage point is about 1,250 Democrats.

Sunday night Senator Clinton returns to Cedar Falls. Monday night I plan to meet Senator Dodd and Wednesday night Senator Obama is on my schedule. Campaigning on the ground in Iowa is safer than in Pakistan, but I assume all of the campaigns will be careful as we move to caucus night.

So what should a campaign do in the next 126 hours. First, to get a 5% bump in support, a candidate needs to meet and influence about 6,250 people, about 50 people per hour. Second, candidates need to solidify the base with upbeat media buys and speak candidly about the other candidates. Most of the Iowa political activists have met all the candidates. Third, candidates need to push for endorsements and run newspaper ads with lists of supporters. Fourth, candidates need to get on the local news in major Iowa media markets everyday. Fifth, campaigns need to have a good contingency plan for bad weather on Caucus night to get supporters to the polls.

So is Senator Joe Biden a viable candidate in Iowa. Perhaps! Sadly he needs cash and the next 126 hours will test his stamina. He can finish a strong 4th and perhaps he can get above 15% statewide. That would be a tremendous victory! I think he would make an outstanding President; Biden has been a dedicated Senator and leader of the Democratic Party his entire adult life. He has strength and courage.

So how much money does Biden need to have a strong showing in Iowa? I estimate in the next 126 hours he needs to strategically spend an additional USD$15 for every vote he wants in the caucuses. That means about $300,000. He needs cash. The Internet has also transformed political fundraising. If you want a smart, rational, experienced. pragmatic centrist as President of the United States, consider helping Joe Biden. His campaign website is http://www.joebiden.com/.

Other sites

Iowa Democratic Party, http://www.iowademocrats.org/

Republican Party of Iowa, http://www.iowagop.net/

Democratic Caucus Location finder, http://www.iowafirstcaucus.org/caucus_finder.php

http://archives.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/01/28/attend.register/

http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=2592

Share: