So what am I learning and doing?

On Tuesday, July 1, I attended a pre-conference workshop conducted by Patrick Humphreys and Carol Lorac (London School of Economics), I especially enjoyed Carol's discussion of using images and sounds to convey information and stimulate creativity in collaborative spaces.

Wednesday morning, Robert Winter (St. Galllen) delivered a keynote on Enterprise-wide Information Logistics to start the conference. No direct connection to collaborative decision making, but moving data around in and between organizations is something we need to better understand and perform for data-driven decision support. I had met Robert at a Teradata conference and he makes a good case for how important his topic is for managers and researchers.

My presentation of a paper coauthored with Susan Wurtz, "Designing and Delivering Training to Enable Managers to Use the SL Environment to Support Organizational Decision-Making", seemed to go well. The university, Manufacture des Tabacs, blocks peer to peer file sharing so I could not demonstrate Second Life, but I showed the Decision Support World YouTube video to help people better understand collaboration in a multiuser virtual world.

Following lunch, I attended a number of domain specific sessions. The program is online at http://www.irit.fr/CDM08/. At 18 hundred hours, we had a welcome reception at the City Hall (Capitole) and a Toulouse Guided Tour. Then I had a quiet dinner at La Cantina des Blachers with Gloria Phillips-Wren (Loyola) and Mary Daly (Cork). The conversation, food and wine was excellent.

This morning, July 3, Leif Edvinsson gave a keynote on intellectual capital and knowledge navigation. Leif tries to be provocative and stimulating and sometimes succeeds. I am still not persuaded we can quantify, encourage or develop meaningful "intellectual capital" in companies or countries. Leif is a true believer however and he tries to persuade us it is important. Somehow again the link to collaboration was lost. Does colaboaration increase intellectual capital and if so how.

After talks on mobile decision support and enjoyable lunch conversation with Tung Bui (Hawaii), I made my way here to check email and blog. Time to return to sessions and the conference dinner this evening.

A bientot,

Prior to 1983, we had data-driven DSS, but the database component was small and specialized. Perhaps data was in an array accessed by APL or data was in a networked or hierarchical database. Without RDBMS and parallel processing we would have very different data-driven decision support today.

According to Wikipedia, "The name DB2 was first given to the Database Management System or DBMS in 1983 when IBM released DB2 on its MVS mainframe platform. Prior to this, a similar product was named SQL/DS on the VM mainframe. The earlier System 38 platform also contained a relational DBMS. System Relational, or System R, was a research prototype developed in the 1970s. DB2 has its roots back to the beginning of the seventies when Dr. E.F. Codd, working for IBM, described the theory of relational databases and in June of 1970 published the model for data manipulation."

"In mid 2006, IBM announced "Viper," which is the codename for DB2 9 on both distributed platforms and z/OS. DB2 9 for z/OS was announced in early 2007. IBM claims that the new DB2 will be the first relational database to store XML "natively". Other enhancements include OLTP-related improvements for distributed platforms, business intelligence/data warehousing-related improvements for z/OS. ..."

Happy birthday!

References

Codd, E.F., "A Relational Model of Data for Large Shared Data Banks". Communications of the ACM 13 (6): 1970, pp. 377–387.

Prince, B., "DB2 at 25," eWeek, Vol. 25, No. 19, June, 16, 2008, p. 26.

Wikipedia, "Edgar F. Codd," URL http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edgar_F._Codd .

Wikipedia, "IBM DB2," URL http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IBM_DB2 .

The website was very easy to set up using the templates and so far it is free and advertising supported. So I had no costs to set up the network other than my time. The URL is IowaMetaverse.ning.com . The Iowametaverse ning includes photos, discussion board, hopefully videos, mashups ...

If you are an Iowan, a friend of an Iowan or former Iowan and are in Second Life or want to be, join my Ning. It is open for viewing.

Will the Ning (http://www.ning.com/)help in making decisions and building the Second Life Iowa community? I think so. More later as the experiment continues.

I will be traveling to Paris and Toulouse starting Saturday, June 28. My plan is a quick stop in Paris to see Tour Eiffel then fly to Toulouse to attend the IFIP working group 8.3 decision support systems conference. Check www.irit.fr/CDM08. I should be back in Cedar Falls by July 7, 2008.

We all need to ask: Is owning and operating a data warehouse mission critical? Do we want operation of a data warehouse to be a core competancy?

My general position is that decision support IS mission critical for any organization. Owning and operating a data warehouse may NOT be.

The world of IT is changing so quickly.

Reference

Hoffman, T., "Is Google your next data center?" Computerworld, June 17, 2008, URL
http://www.computerworld.com/action/article.do?command=viewArticleBasic&articleId=9097258&source=NLT_AM&nlid=1

Sturdevant begins "BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE IS NOT new: Large enterprises, especially in regulated industries such as finance and health care, have used BI tools including data warehouses for years." Using data warehouses and data-driven decision support is so much more wide spread than finance and health care and those are not the most sophisticated systems. When I think of applications, I think of retail, customer affinity programs in airlines and entertainment like gambling, cable TV and cell phones, so many industries. Also, using historical data for decision making is widespread.

Next we read "Midsize and smaller organizations are about to find that they may have a competitive problem if they aren't ready to implement these technologies, too." Give me a break Sturdevant, the problem already exists. Every organization needs access to better quality data to support decision making. This is not a "may have" situation.

In 237 words, Sturdevant shows we need to do a better job of educating some members of the industry press! He ends "A successful marriage of technology and business means making a commitment to discovering any hidden areas of business ignorance that reside in IT, as well as ensuring that technology is put in the service of supporting business success."

His analysis is so 20th Century. The problem of modern data-driven decision support is not IT ignorance. The 21st Century problem is getting superior systems that create real advantages. Decision support is a strategy enabler and key driver of business success if done correctly; an enormous drain on resources if mishandled.

Reference

eWeek Labs, "10 IT Problems You May Not Know You Have," eWeek, Vol. 25, No. 16, May 19, 2008, pp. 33-38.

Technorati Tags: Need BI, Business Intelligence, Decision Support

Recently, Michael Hickins had an article in eWeek.com (May 29, 2008) titled "10 Ways Your Employees Pose a Security Risk for Your Organization." When I got the email what caught my attention was the teaser line "From using unauthorized wireless devices to frolicking around in virtual worlds, workers can unwittingly unleash havoc on their company's IT infrastructure." I was and am unsure how frolicking around in a virtual world can unleash havoc for IT.

The 10 risks cited include: 1) USB Flash Drives, 2) Laptops, 3) P2P, 4) Web Mail, 5) Wi-Fi, 6) Smart Phones, 7) Collaboration Tools, 8) Social Networks, 9) Unauthorized Software Updates and 10) Virtual Worlds. Hickins has misidentified the risks.

Why? 1) Clearly flash drives are a problem for data theft but they have little impact on IT infrastructure. 2) Laptops again create data theft and model-driven DSS risks, but won't impact IT infrastructure. 3) Peer to peer (P2P) does create some load problems and risks for decision support. 4) Web mail is valuable even though data theft risks are real. Any external email capability can facilitate data theft. 5) Wi-Fi properly configured should present no threat. 6) Smart phones pose the same risk as laptops. 7) Collaboration tools have almost zero risk. 8) A social network can create professional connections. The risk to IT infrastructure is limited. 9) Yes, clearly any unauthorized IT software update activity is a major problem. 10) Virtual worlds can distract people from work, but virtual world can support decision making.

What do you think? What about risks like hacking and unauthorized use? Do physical risks pose an equal danger? Does IT infrastructure fail more from ineptness of IT staff or actions of disgruntled staff?

Reference

Hickins, M., "10 Ways Your Employees Pose a Security Risk for Your Organization," eWeek.com, May 29, 2008, URL: http://www.eweek.com/c/a/Security/10-Ways-Your-Employees-Pose-a-Security-Risk-for-Your-Organization/?kc=EWKNLEDP052908A .

Technorati Tags: DSS security, Business Intelligence, decision support

The webcast is June 4, 2008 at 2 p.m. ET. The pitch is a case study.

"The most competitive healthcare facilities are realizing the benefits of user friendly, visual performance analytics that provide a complete view of critical business information. Join Cleveland Clinic and Business Objects to see a live Web seminar illustrating how Cleveland Clinic is currently using their performance analytic solutions to visually understand their business with performance dashboards and interactive business models. Discussion Topics:
• Best practices in leveraging visual performance analytics and dashboards
• How healthcare providers and payers are leveraging this information today
• How to add visual performance analytics to documents, spreadsheets and presentations
• Empowering end-users. "

The problem with lowering healthcare costs is only indirectly addressed by visualization, performance dashboards and interactive models. The key is figuring out the performance metrics that really will improve efficiency and effectiveness. Bad metrics lead to bad dashboards and bad models. So what are the metrics for healthcare administrative decision support?

1. Professional staffing levels by department and average cost?
2. Average cost of care per patient?
3. Utilization of hospital beds?
4. Staffing percentages and average cost by category, support, administrative, professional
medical, professional other?
5. Monthly operations cost trends, energy, supplies, food?
6. Donations, charitable contributions monthly and historical average?
7. Medicare reimbursement prior month versus budget?
etc., etc.

Let's discuss the metrics before we get excited about the display and the tools.

So how large is the global data-driven decision support software and services market in terms of annual sales? And what is the anticipated growth of the market?

According to a release from AMR at DSSResources.com, "Global spending on business intelligence and performance management applications will reach $57.1B in 2008 ..." AMR Research sees U.S. BI/PM market growing 4.2% in 2008 (see http://dssresources.com/news/2502.php).

Contrast that with Mary Hayes Weier's estimate of a USD $7 billion dollar market for BI discussed in my April 27, 2008 blog post. What is the reality?

From the numbers I have seen over the years and from looking at vendor revenue numbers, USD $7 billion is much too low for the data-driven decision support market size, but USD $57 billion seems very high. I estimate a USD $15-20 billion dollar market. As far as growth, I think the growth rate is about 5% and it should be much higher in future years if companies want to remain competitive.

Let's see what my friends and colleagues on the BI network think.

According to Weier, "IBM, SAP, Oracle and Microsoft account for about half of the $7billion business intelligence market. All four are pitching enterprise-wide BI platforms, each with its own twist. Here's what you need to know to choose." She then provides a comprehensive analysis of the the recent BI acquisition history, the challenges facing each company to integrate diverse product lines and what she sees as the strategies each of the big 4 is following and who might win. Overall, I found the article a useful, quick read. Nothing earth shattering, but reasonably helpful to an IT person trying to sort out the business intelligence market place.

My take on what is happening is:

1) IBM wants to move beyond infrastructure and provide more comprehensive application integration services. Cognos is a good fit with the strategy.

2) SAP wants to focus on operational business intelligence. It has too many products developed in-house and acquired. The BI tools are in disarray. Business Objects is a good partner, but there are and will be major problems.

3) Oracle emphasizes its database product. Business Objects would have been a better acquisition for Oracle than Hyperion, but the deeds are done. Oracle may need to look seriously at acquiring Microstrategy to get a frontend application development tool. Integrating the Oracle stack to create enterprise-wide BI is still a problem. What kind of BI does Oracle want to provide? I don't know. Oracle needs to sort out its applications, operational performance monitoring, special studies, scorecards, financial analysis, budgeting, etc. Oracle needs a clearer vision of data-driven decision support.

4) Microsoft is getting much stronger. I always liked the ProClarity people and product. SQL Server 2008 is the key to greater penetration by Microsoft in the enterprise BI application domain. I still like Excel even though I am concerned about moving away from Visual Basic for Applications (VBA). If Microsoft figures out that competing with Google "head on" in search is no win, then perhaps Microsoft will make a real commitment to enterprise-wide data-driven decision support and get it right.

Check the article at: http://www.tmcnet.com/usubmit/2008/04/14/3385297.htm .

First check Jane's powerpoint slides at http://www.slideshare.net/avantgame/10-collaboration-superpowers/. She defines the 10 collaboration and collective intelligence compentancies and skills. Her points have a * ...

Mobbability --> to me this means skill at synchronous work in large virtual teams

* The ability to do realtime work in very large groups.
* A talent for coordinating with many people simultaneously - "scalable collaboration"

Cooperation radar --> to me this means skill in selecting virtual teammates

* The ability to sense, almost intuitively, who would make the best collaborators on a particular task.

Ping quotient --> to me this means fast interaction and response

* Measures your responsiveness to other people's requests for engagement.
* Your propensity and ability to reach out to others in a network.

Influency --> to me this means building trust and exerting influence

* The ability to be persuasive in diverse social contexts and media spaces.
* Understanding that each work environment and collaboration space requires a different persuasive strategy and technique.

Multi-capitalism --> to me this means skill in using all of one's skills and resources

* Fluency in working with different capitals, e.g., natural, intellectual, social, and financial.

Protovation --> to me this means innovation, rapid prototyping and rapid response

* Fearless innovation in rapid, iterative cycles.
* Ability to lower the costs and increase the speed of failure.

Open authorship --> to me this means content sharing with appropriate attribution of authorship

* Creating content for public consumption and modification.

Longbroading --> to me this means examining the current and future context of a situation, taking a broad, holistic view

* Thinking in terms of higher level systems, cycles, the big picture.

Emergensight --> to me this means intellectual flexibility, situational awareness and planning skills

* The ability to prepare for and handle surprising results and complexity.

Signal/noise management --> to me this means selective scanning and information load management

* Filtering meaningful info, patterns, and commonalities from massively multiple streams of data.

Well Jane, I still don't like the terms you use, but I think my skills in all these areas are improving from my experiences in the virtual world called Second Life.

Source: Harvard Business Review; February 2008, Vol. 86 Issue 2, pp. 17-45.

Jerome Groopman, MD discusses errors of judgment and how physicians are beginning to acknowledge their fallibility "in an effort to teach others and to improve themselves." CEOs should have formal decision-making reviews for self-analysis. Do you think this will happen?

Michael Sheehan suggests managers need to deal more effectively with opposition to strategic ideas. He notes "for a variety of reasons, businesses face better organized and more vocal opponents than ever before." The approaches for dealing with community-based opposition are not tied to tradional business intelligence, but good customer relationship decision support could help.

John Medina suggests "imagine a brain-friendly workplace where board meetings are conducted on treadmills, desks are equipped with stationary bicycles, and people wear gym clothes, not suits." Supposedly we "learn 20% faster immediately after exercise than after sitting still." So exercise while you use your BI tools.

Jane McGonigal writes "In the coming decade, many businesses will achieve their greatest breakthroughs by playing games - specifically, alternate reality games, or ARGs." "ARGs will provide a truly stimulating framework for doing everyday work." Supposedly alternate reality games help users develop 10 collective-intelligence competencies, like "influency", "emergensight" and "mobbability". Well the skill names seem strange, but I will investigate and blog about the competencies/skills in a future posting.

Miklos Sarvary, Professor at INSEAD titles his contribution "The Metaverse: TV of the Future?". Sarvey asserts "Within five years, the dominant internet interface is likely to be the metaverse, a term used to describe interactive multiplayer games such as Second Life." Organizations need to prepare for the coming of the metaverse. INSEAD "opened a virtual campus on Second Life to find the answers."

Jan Chipchase suggests "In an increasingly connected future, the data trails from all these sources will create a massive universe of metadata. ... In the brave new world of aggregated data, companies will need to monitor themselves as well."

Lew McCreary suggests PDAs are and will become "excuse technology". "Anticipate, therefore, epidemic levels of BlackBerry and Treo-constrained recollection of important decisions made in your presence or of orders you've issued to your teams."

Michael J. Mauboussin asserts "As computing power grows and networks unleash the wisdom of crowds, the unique value of experts in making predictions and solving problems is steadily narrowing."

Well on to 2009 and more predictions next year. Thanks HBR for looking ahead once in awhile.

Source: Harvard Business Review; February 2008, Vol. 86 Issue 2, pp. 17-45.

My students will be virtual business owners. They will experience operating a business in Second Life and they may have a real life link. For example, a student might sell Iowa post cards or memorabilia in Second Life and also offer to mail a post card from Iowa in real life with the sender's message for a fee and collect the payment in Second Life in the local exchange called Lindens.

What does this project have to do with decision support? Students will need to use the Second Life reporting tools and find software to track visitors. Also, they will use and perhaps create decision support tools. In general, I think innovative decision support will help vBusinesses succeed.

So what are the keys to entrepreneuring in a virtual world? I am still learning so this is a preliminary list:

1. Relationships are the key to success in a virtual business, so find a global network of partners, build customer relationships using a Second Life group. Give people who help a stake in your success. Always remember a virtual world is a complex social network. Participate and build a friends list!

2. Target a customer/product niche that can be identified. Know who will buy from you, why and when? A virtual world allows extensive segmentation, just make sure the niche is large enough to generate sufficient revenue.

3. Keep focused on 2-3 short range goals. Virtual worlds are changing rapidly as the technology improves. Get in quick, sell what you can, move on or grow. Remember franchising and formula facilities. Help newcomers.

4. Prepare a written business plan like you would for any start-up business. vBusiness is real business. Your goal is to make money. Make a plan!

5. A vBusiness should operate 24/7/365. Automate some operations, but in many cases you need to staff globally to keep the traffic coming. Find and hire people who have social networks and who are in different time zones.

6. Reward the people who make your vBusiness a success. Consider franchising or bonuses. Virtual worlds are expanding and good friends who help make a business a success are the future of any vBusiness. Strive to create stable relationships in the fast changing virtual world.

7. Start-up is reasonably inexpensive in a virtual world like Second Life, but cash management is important. The medium of exchange, Lindens, fluctuates and taking money "out of the game" may be difficult. Project cash needs and have a plan to get cash in and out. Good accounting and forecasting is still needed in a vBusiness!

8. Find a competitive edge or advantage that you can exploit. The vBusiness advantage may be a "hard to imitate" inworld product or service, quick response with delivery of real world solutions, entertainment tie-ins with copyrighted materials or ... ? let your imagination guide you to new sources of sustainable advantage. Everything in a virtual world is not free and easy to copy. Learn about permissions and ownership in virtual worlds.

9. Take calculated risks and be prepared to bail out if serious loses occur. Business in a virtual world remains fragile and problematic for some goods and services. Just because you can show a product to people in a virtual world doesn't mean there will be a real world or in world demand. Also, prices are generally low for products in virtual worlds. Of course once the product is created, production costs are also very low. The time spent creating a virtual product is a "sunk cost" so price accordingly. Premium pricing only works if the product is hard to imitate.

10. Change, adaptability and uncertainty are the reality of vBusiness. Entrepreneurs hoping to cash in on a virtual world marketplace need to learn about the rapidly changing market and become part of the relevant "community" targeted for the product or service. A day is 4 hours long in Second Life and sometimes it seems that given the global audience, one day in Real Life is six days of change in Second Life.

Contact me if you want more information on vBusiness Entrepreneuring.

What is the vBusiness Expo? The conference aims to cover 4 key areas: 1) Virtual Workplace, 2) Virtual Education, 3) Virtual Marketing, and 4) Virtual Commerce. Check http://cleverzebra.com/vbusiness/expo .

vBusiness Expo Day 1: The Virtual Workplace. "Virtual worlds are being used as a collaborative environment, as well as a distance management tool and for employee education. The virtual workplace discussions, panels, interviews and lectures will focus on sharing ideas, and broadening knowledge of how virtual environments can be used by companies as collaborative work spaces and viable alternatives to carbon heavy travel."

vBusiness Expo Day 2: Virtual Marketing. "In many ways marketers are still feeling their way in virtual worlds. We’re only just getting started, and there’s a long road ahead."

vBusiness Expo Day 3: Virtual Commerce. "The promise that virtual worlds hold for commerce is exciting and full of possibilities. Day three of the vBusiness Expo will look at how companies are using virtual worlds to sell real goods and services. We’ll discuss the technicalities of setting up shop in a virtual world, study how others are experimenting in the space and debate the future impact virtual worlds will have on retail."

vBusiness Expo Day 4: Virtual Education. "There are already over 150 universities represented in Second Life and like the virtual workplace, education is an area where we can already see clear and measurable benefits for organizations."

The sponsor of vBusiness Expo is Clever Zebra. Clever Zebra is a virtual company. According to the Web site, "We live and work in virtual worlds, and in fact have never met in the physical world. We operate from the US, Canada and Denmark. Our 'office' is a connection to the 3D web. The company was founded on the principle of promoting virtual worlds as a platform for business. Our ongoing goal is to make it easy and inexpensive for companies to work in virtual environments. We do this by providing the buildings, code and tools needed by organizations for free, and adding value through optional paid services." The movers and shakers of Clever Zebra are Caleb Booker, Jenn Lortz, Josh Eikenberry and Nick Wilson. In Second Life known respectively as Onder Skall, Jenn Hienrichs, Lordfly Digeridoo and 57 Miles.

I am attending the vBusiness Expo and I am presenting a session on "What are the advantages and disadvantages of using Second Life for decision support?" Hope to see all of my decision support friends in Second Life. If you need help, email me power@dssresources.com . If you can't make the Expo, visit me in Virtual Iowa (IowaMetaverse.com) or at Decision Support World Headquarters (DecisionSupportWorld.com).

If you do or have lived in Iowa, want to live in Iowa, have good friends in Iowa or want a great place to visit, join the Second Life group called Iowa and visit Iowa in Second Life. As I mentioned in my last blog post my plan is to use Virtual Iowa to explore location decisions by individuals and organizations, vacation decisions by individuals and college choice decisions. I will also enjoy being in both the real Iowa and Virtual Iowa.

So I will explore if a virtual world experience can impact human choice behaviors. Much of the Web content has been about providing information. My sense is that riding a bike in Virtual Iowa will encourage some people to come to the real Iowa for a "real" bike ride. Also, experiencing a College or plant facility in a virtual world may impact intentions regarding the real place.

Now I need to figure out how to design and specify requirements for the 3D user interface that will be Iowa. A 3D space of 512 meters by 512 meters is more complex to design than a Website and certainly much more complex than a single Web page.

I keep very busy and multi-task and the metaverse helps me tremendously.

For more information about Virtual Iowa, contact:

Daniel J. Power aka Leinad Meriman
email: power@iowametaverse.com

Video on YouTube:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OksmgCsYeZ4 (5 minutes 45 seconds)

Video on Blip. tv -- the wmv version:

http://blip.tv/file/get/ThinkererMelville-DecisionSupportWorld334.wmv

The video is a tour hosted by my avatar of Decision Support World (DSW) headquarters in Linden Labs' Second Life.

Decision Support World (DSW) also hosted Decision Support Workshop #9 on Friday, March 7, 2008 at 11 am PST. The host was George Kurtz aka Butch Dae on the topic "3D Mindmaps: SL Developments". Avatar Goedeke Messmer discussed programming issues for an inworld tool. The workshop was at TechTalk@SL Discussion Center.

DSS Workshop #10 will be on "Active Spatial Immersion Meeting Tools for Second Life" with presenter Julio Cesar Molina, Graduate Student at the Technical University of Eindhoven, on Friday, March 14 at 11am PST. Join us.

My newest project is Iowa Metaverse, Inc. (http://iowametaverse.com/). Iowa Metaverse, Inc. is a Nonprofit Iowa 501(c)(3) corporation. The mission and purposes of Iowa Metaverse, Inc. are educational and charitable. The specific mission is to develop and operate regions, islands and servers in and for virtual worlds, what has been called the the metaverse. Iowa Metaverse attempts to educate and inform people with regard to economic opportunity in the State of Iowa, to living in and relocating to the State of Iowa and opportunities for visiting and tourism in the State of Iowa. When appropriate Iowa Metaverse, Inc. will help other States and regions requiring aid in such projects.

Metaverse comes from Neal Stephenson’s 1992 novel Snow Crash. The term is widely used to describe the vision behind current work on fully immersive 3D virtual spaces like Linden Labs' Second Life or There.com. In these environments, people interact as avatars with each other, both socially and economically, and sometimes with software agents in a cyber space, that uses the metaphor of the real world, but without its physical limitations.

Iowa Metaverse, Inc. now has its first island in Second Life called Iowa. I am trying to use virtual worlds technologies to help people make specific decisions about locating plants and offices, tourist destinations and even where to live and work.

For more information on Iowa Metaverse, Inc., contact me:

Daniel Power, Executive Director
906 Barnett Dr.
Cedar Falls, IA 50613
(319) 266-8007

Visit Iowa in Second Life:

http://slurl.com/secondlife/Iowa/129/122/27

Now I have 2 computers and 2 monitors on my desk linked by a program called Synergy. One mouse and keyboard works with both systems. I just drag the cursor from one screen to another. My multitasking has moved to a new level.