Chapter 1: Decision support systems revisited

1.  What is the need for decision support?
2.  What technology skills do managers need?
3.  What is the history of computerized decision support?
4.  What is the theory of computerized decision support systems?
5.  What is different about modern decision support systems?

Chapter 2: Decision support concepts and key terms

6.  What is a decision support system?
7.  Do we (still) need Executive Information Systems?
8.  What is business intelligence?
9.  What is operational business intelligence?
10. Are BAM and BPM decision support systems?
11. What is knowledge management?

Chapter 3: Recognizing types of decision support

12. What is decision automation?
13. What is a computer supported special study?
14. What are the different types of DSS?
15. What are basic characteristics of a decision support system?
16. What are the features of a communications-driven DSS?
17. What are the features of a data-driven DSS?
18. What are the features of a document-driven DSS?
19. What are the features of a knowledge-driven DSS?
20. What are the features of a model-driven DSS?
21. What type of DSS is it?

Chapter 4: Decision support benefits and tradeoffs

22. What are potential benefits of decision support?
23. Can DSS provide a competitive advantage?
24. Can DSS impact decision outcomes?
25. What are substitutes for computerized decision support?
26. What are possible disadvantages of building and using DSS?

Chapter 5: Identifying decision support opportunities

27. What is decision support planning?
28. What is a decision process audit?
29. Is reengineering necessary to build an effective DSS?
30. What is a decision support system feasibility study?
31. What factors influence DSS implementation risk?
32. What are tradeoffs of outsourcing enterprise-wide DSS?

Chapter 6: Looking forward to innovative DSS

33. Do you need formative or summative evaluation?
34. What are ethical issues associated with DSS?
35. Can project champions reduce resistance to a new system?

The book addresses 35 fundamental questions that are relevant to understanding computerized decision support. In an upcoming post I will list the 35 questions. 

No charge for BeyeNETWORK readers for your first meeting.

Dan

power@dssresources.com

What should managers and MBA students know about modern decision support? I suggest the following columns at DSSResources.com:

What is a modern decision support system?

What do managers need to know about DSS?

Why study computerized decision support?

What are the advantages and disadvantages of computerized decision support?

What are substitutes for computerized decision support?

How has and will Moore\'s Law impact computerized decision support?

What is the technology adoption curve? Is it relevant to DSS?

What are Decision Support technology trends?

How does organization level impact decision support?

Can DSS provide firms with a sustainable competitive advantage? If so, how?

What companies have gained a competitive advantage by building a DSS?

Is there an "information culture" that encourages building Decision Support Systems?

How can managers identify opportunities to create innovative DSS?

What factors impact decision support project implementation risk?

Can DSS impact decision outcomes?

What is the output of a decision support system?

Is reengineering needed to build an effective DSS?

How can DSS impact steps in a general decision process model?

What evaluation criteria are used for decision support projects?

How should decision support projects be managed?

What are advantages and disadvantages of data warehouses?

Is it advantageous to outsource development and operation of Decision Support Systems?

How important is flexibility for a DSS?

How does the use of a Communications-Driven DSS impact a decision-making meeting?

What are benefits of Interorganizational DSS?

What is real-time decision support?

What are challenges of real-time decision support?

What are examples of decision support systems in global enterprises?

What are sources of data for building a data-driven DSS?

What is the expanded DSS framework?

What are the components of a decision support system?

What are the features of a communications-driven DSS?

What are the features of a data-driven DSS?

What is operational business intelligence?

Where can I find information about KPIs for building DSS in different industries?

What are the features of a document-driven DSS?

What are the features of a knowledge-driven DSS?

What are the features of a model-driven DSS?

What decisions are appropriate for model-driven DSS?

Question #1: What is the purpose of the proposed system? Reporting, ad hoc query and analysis, performance monitoring?

Question #2: Who wants the system? Will they really use it?

Question #3: Is there a data quality problem? How serious is the problem?

Question #4: What vendors are "best in class"? Are you wedded to your current vendor of transaction systems?

Question #5: Do you have a realistic schedule for the evaluation and implementation process?

Question #6: Do you have in-house staff to work on the project? If not, are you comfortable outsourcing to contractors or vendor staff a key decision support capability?

Question #7: Did the person suggesting the project just meet with a vendor or attend a tradeshow? Are they excited about dashboards?

Please ask these questions and review the answers carefully as part of a feasibility study. If the decision is to proceed with a project, invite vendors to respond to a structured request.

DSS 1979 - 2009 - 2039: Reflecting on Yesterday, Assessing Today, Envisioning Tomorrow (http://cob.fsu.edu/mis/icdss/) is the theme of the upcoming International Conference on Decision Support Systems (ICDSS 2009).

The theme of this two day International Conference is to reflect on the past thirty years of DSS activity, assess the current best practices in teaching and research, and envision the next thirty years of it. Concurrently, we will recognize the twentieth anniversary of the founding of the International Society for Decision Support Systems (ISDSS). The conference will be held on August 5-6, 2009, the days prior to the Americas Conference on Information Systems (August 6-9), at the same conference venue (San Francisco Marriott).

The conference will consist of three segments. The first, Reflecting on Yesterday, will examine the rich history of DSS research and teaching by drawing on contributions from the field's luminaries. Contributions from pioneering DSS researchers and teachers have been solicited. Their responses will be synthesized by the program committee into an overview of the DSS field that outlines the accomplishments made and the challenges that exist.

The second segment, Assessing Today, and the third segment, Envisioning Tomorrow, will consist of presentations based on papers submitted in each category. A number of presentations will be scheduled from industry-based thought leaders regarding the application of new approaches to support future decision making environments.

Important Dates

Submissions Due: March 1, 2009 (send to paradice@fsu.edu)

Acceptances Notified: April 30, 2009

Camera Ready Papers Due: July 1, 2009; the Conference book will be published by Springer in the Annals of Information Systems series.

Conference: August 5 & 6, 2009

Program Committee

Frada Burstein, Monash University, Australia

David Paradice, Florida State University, USA

Dan Power, University of Northern Iowa, USA

Ramesh Sharda, Oklahoma State University, USA

check http://dssresources.com/news/2724.php

Americas Conference on Information Systems: http://amcis2009.sfsu.edu/ & http://amcis2009.aisnet.org/

Technorati Tags: International Conference on DSS 2009, Business Intelligence, Decision Support .

It seems reasonable that a Chief Performance Officer with a management background should identify "key performance indicators" or KPIs based upon Obama's goals. So what should the KPIs be?

1) Net job creation. Obama promises to create 3 million jobs in the next 18 months or so. What is the gain in jobs versus loss of jobs? Obama wants most new jobs in the private sector so a measure of the sector of jobs that are created and average wage of new jobs.

2) Health costs. Obama wants to control rising health care costs. There should be health care cost indexes perhaps on a regional basis that can be used.

3) Health insurance coverage. Obama wants to have everyone in the US covered by some type of health insurance, but he wants a mix of insurance sources. Perhaps measure the % insured or the % uninsured.

4) Price stability index. Obama wants to stimulate the economy and avoid inflation. Perhaps some easily understandable measures like the average price of a gallon of milk by region or a market basket of groceries.

5) Number of foreclosures. Obama wants to get out of the current subprime mortgage crisis and keep people in their homes if possible. Some people paid too much and others falsified loan documents, some people have lost jobs. Perhaps a measure of loans adjusted by lenders or average housing price index is a better metric for Obama's policy goals.

6) Balance of Payments. More goods are imported than exported. Obama wants the US to be globally competitive and have a positive balance of payments. He certainly doesn't want to use tariffs or falling real wages to accomplish this goal. The hope is that increased productivity, innovation and entrepreneurship will lead to increased competitiveness. So perhaps monitor the cateogries of the trade deficit and monitor incentives for increased productivity like spending on new plant, technology and equipment.

7) Fossil fuel consumption. Obama wants to encourage creation of a "green" economony. Monitoring average fuel economy of vehicles, percent of energy from alternative sources like wind and solar, and investment in energy efficiency like better insulation would also help policy makers.

8) Government's cost per person. What is the average cost of operating government for each person in the US. Ideally if we are reducing waste, the cost of government per person should go down. This should be a measure of the "administrative overhead" for government programs.

Ideally about 7 to 8 policy oriented KPIs is all we want and we need specific targets in each area, both short run and long run, and investments and plans to impact the KPIs.

Setting KPIs for Obama is a difficult task. We shall see if Obama, Killefer and the bureaucrats in Washington can figure out performance monitoring.

Technorati Tags: Killefer & Obama, KPI Government, Business Intelligence, Decision Support .

1) maintain better contact with my colleagues. I will try to use Linkedin more effectively. Please network with me and read my profile at www.linkedin.com/in/danpower .

2) improve my SQL skills. I still get trauma with nested sub queries, correlated queries, and outer joins. I try to keep my SQL simple, but I need to practice.

3) write more and get more feedback from people actually working with IS/T on my ideas. My newsletter reaches many practitioners of the arcane art of decision support, but I will try to request more formal reviewers. Please send me feedback.

4) travel first class or travel less. My trip to Paris a few weeks ago was a success on many levels, the presentation was well received and I had some great social encounters. Sadly travel is tiring and my legs don't do well cramped in a seat. So quality over quantity in my travels in 2009.

5) say thank you to all my readers, family, colleagues and friends with the beyeNETWORK. My wife Carol is the unsung hero in keeping our household and the family business going. So thanks Carol.

6) get a smart phone with a data plan. My two oldest sons both have smart phones, Alex, a G phone, and Ben, a Blackberry Storm. I don't think I am ready for texting and I don't have extensive travel to justify the cost, but I want one of these devices as a "toy". I have seen the Apple iPhone in action too. Which will I get? I want the G phone because of the keyboard and the open development environment. Sadly, I don't have T-Mobile in my area and I have a contract with Verizon. Ah ... the barriers to entry.

7) drink some good scotch. Again I'll focus on quality over quantity. My single malt scotch collection is expanding. A bottle of Lagavulin is my next purchase. I sampled some a few weeks ago. According to Wikipedia "Lagavulin Single Malt is a single malt Scotch whisky produced on the island of Islay. It has a powerful, peat-smoke aroma. It is described as being robustly full-bodied, well balanced, and smooth, with a slight sweetness on the palate."

Technorati Tags: New Year's Resolutions, Business Intelligence, Decision Support .

My goal will be to recruit authors who can prepare a "concise, academically reliable, yet no-nonsense applied book" on a specific Information Systems topic. These books will be 50 pages to a maximum of 150 pages in length -- focused, authoritative, and a fast read.

Over the next few years the goal is 40-50 titles in this collection. Please contact me with your ideas, email daniel.power@dssresources.com .

Some titles that I brainstormed include:

1. Understanding Data-driven Decision Support

2. Modern Decision Support

3. Practical Knowledge Management

4. Relational Database Basics

5. Creating Collaborative Supply Chains

6. Building a Real-time Enterprise

7. Designing and Building a Datawarehouse

8. Information Stewardship and Master Data Management

9. Designing an Information System

10. Managing the Information Systems Function

11. Managing Information Systems Projects

12. Requesting Proposals from Vendors

13. Renovating an Information Systems Architecture

14. Using Virtual Worlds for Decision Support

15. Implementing Enterprise Resource Planning

16. Adoption and Diffusion of Inormation Technology

17. Using Information Technology in Health Care

18. Evaluating Information System User Interfaces

19. Outsourcing Information Systems

20. Business Performance Management

21. Decision and Process Automation

22. Information Systems Security

23. Implementing Accounting Information Systems

24. Social Networking

25. Implementing Web Services

26. Using Open Source Software in the Enterprise

27. Mobile Computing

28. Electronic Government Applications

29. Strategic Information Systems

30. Role of the Chief Information Officer

31. Using Quantitative Models for Decision Support

Technorati Tags: Business Expert Press, Business Intelligence, Decision Support .

Speed: Every aspect of business and the connected organization operates and changes in real time.

Connectivity: Everything is becoming electronically connected to everything else; products, people, companies, countries, everything.

Intangibles: Every offer has both tangible and intangible economic value. The intangible is growing faster.

These forces are stronger and are creating BLUR, real confusion. Davis and Meyer suggest ways organizations and individuals can adapt to, respond to, and become BLUR. That approach is wrong!

These forces are much more powerful today in 2008 than in 1998, and much harm has been done by accepting BLUR. My solution is to provide more, better, and innovative real-time decision support. We must see clearly. BLUR and these 3 forces are compounding the current financial crisis and may have created it. Speed, connectivity and intangibles have led many to make poor choices. Blurry vision is never good!

It will not be easy, but managers, regulators, and consumers need better real-time decision support to cope with BLUR and make better decisions. We need to deBLUR.

Davis, S. and C. Meyer, BLUR, Cambridge, MA: Perseus Books, 1998.

Technorati Tags: BLUR, Business Intelligence, Decision Support .

This year, 2008, marks the 50th anniversary of the first, sophisticated real-time decision support system. The SAGE (Semi-Automatic Ground Environment) Air Defense system project was begun in 1954 and the first "Direction Center" building went operational at McGuire Air Force Base in 1958.

The Semi-Automatic Ground Environment (SAGE) system was the first major real-time, computer-based command and control system.

"The SAGE system was fully deployed in 1963; the 24 SAGE Direction Centers and three SAGE Combat Centers were spread throughout the U.S. Each was linked by long-distance telephone lines to more than 100 interoperating air defense elements, requiring system integration on a scale previously unimagined. At the heart of each center was a new large-scale digital computer that had evolved from MIT's experimental Whirlwind computer of the 1950's. The largest real-time computer program of that time, it automated information flow, processed and presented data to 100 operator stations, and provided control information to the weapons systems. This processed information, including aircraft tracks and identification, was presented to operators on a cathode ray tube—one of the first uses of this device to display computer-generated data. In spite of this complexity, remarkable for its time, SAGE exceeded virtually all the original stringent requirements, and was continuously in operation for more than 25 years. (cf., Mitre)"

SAGE had an enormous impact on the decision support possibilities in 2008.

References

http://www.mitre.org/about/sage.html

http://history.sandiego.edu/GEN/20th/sage.html

http://www.mitre.org/about/photo_archives/sage_photo.html

Technorati Tags: SAGE, Business Intelligence, Decision Support .

Sunday was sessions and Monday I participated in a panel chaired by J. P. Shim and titled "Present and Future of Decision Support Technology, Practice and Research." J. P. focused on mobile technologies and the infrastructure needs for future decision support.

Jim Courtney stressed the need for various perspectives in DSS and Knowledge Management. He noted theory needs more development and argued for a broad, multi-perspective model of decision making including ethical concerns. Mark Silver emphasized the need for more behavioral research. Merrill Warkentin stressed the technology mix and broader online/automated decision support tools.

My presentation was the last on the panel and my focus was on future decision support technologies. My presentation began with mobile platforms and Barack Obama using a Blackberry. An open operating system like Android is good for decision support. Then John King of CNN was using his large screen display. Next immersive environments, then TelePresence Holographic Video Conferencing. The photo showed a demonstration by Cisco CEO John Chambers unveiling their On-Stage TelePresence Holographic Video Conferencing using the Musion Eyeliner high definition holographic video projection system with 3-dimensional moving images appearing within a live stage setting. Cisco has held 28,000 meetings using telepresence. Check http://www.musion.co.uk/Cisco_TelePresence.html .

Then my presentation emphasized virtual world technologies. Briefly, I then emphasized the use and availability of very large detailed, active databases. After discussing real-time monitoring and decision support, I summarized some recent decision support technology developments, including: solid state disk (SSD) drives, eBay's 5 petabyte DW, iPhone spreadsheet and BI, visualization widgets, data warehousing as a service, open source BI, predictive analytics, SaaS, pre-configured BI applications, high-definition videoconferencing, semantic intelligence, tracking pallets in real time, and smart navigation.

We will try to jointly write an article and expand on these themes.

Tuesday, I made a presentation of a research article co-authored with Susan Wurtz titled "Using Virtual Worlds for Real World Decision Support." Wednesday I got back to Cedar Falls for a wonderful family Thanksgiving.

Peace and let's all give thanks.

Technorati Tags: Future Decision Support, Business Intelligence, Decision Support .

Population growth. Our population on this planet will continue to grow and migration pressures and an aging population will continue to challenge the United States. We will need to use technology and decision support responsibly to provide benefits to people and to track guest workers and visitors.

Resource depletion. Petroleum resources are finite, but information technologies can help reduce and monitor consumption. Companies and organizations can monitor fleet fuel consumption, improve maintenance and incorporate smart monitoring into homes and offices.

Religious radicalism. The stress of an increasingly secular, global economy creates strains in some parts of the world. Decision support can assist in military operations, but also in "peace" operations.

Global supply. Goods and services are delivered globally. Extended supply chains for both goods and services can benefit from more sophisticated decision support.

Wealth distribution. Rich and poor nations want a high quality of life for citizens. Technology can accentuate wealth differences or potentially reduce the impact. Databases on needs and consumption, productivity and resources can help global economic development groups target investments and encourage sustainable growth.

Education deficiencies. We all need to know more and learn faster. Computerized decision support can help track student achievement and reward differentially those tasked with creating and disseminating knowledge. The trick is identifying useful performance indicators that can't be manipulated and that show areas for improvement and "real" improvements as they occur.

Financial management. Any meaningful regulation of the global financial system will require complex decision support capabilities.

This list is a start. I think we have many opportunities for using decision support to create positive change.

Technorati Tags: Future Decision Support, Business Intelligence, Decision Support .

Next Tuesday, November 4, 2008, CNN anchor Wolf Blitzer will conduct holographic interviews with people at remote sites. The person being interviewed will be projected as a three-dimensional hologram. Supposedly it will appear to TV viewers that the person is in the studio with Wolf. How it will appear to Wolf and the person being interviewed is uncertain.

The USA Today story (10/30/2008) notes "CNN will have 44 cameras and 20 computers in each remote location to capture 360-degree imaging data of the person being interviewed. Images are processed and projected by computers and cameras in New York. There'll also be plasma TVs in Chicago and Phoenix that will let the people being interviewed see Blitzer and other CNN correspondents. Bohrman says the network can project two different views from each city so Blitzer can appear to be in the studio with two holograms."

I will be watching.

Baig, E. and J. Swartz, "Election-night news to co-star latest technology," USAToday, October 30, 2008,
URL http://www.usatoday.com/tech/products/2008-10-29-election-presidential-technology-cnn_N.htm .

Power, D., What was the first computerized decision support system (DSS)? DSS News, Vol. 7, No. 27, December 31, 2006, URL http://dssresources.com/faq/index.php?action=artikel&id=133.

Technorati Tags: hologram display, Business Intelligence, Decision Support .

Rather than training managers to use SQL or simplifying and making more meaningful data structures including relations and metadata, we have tried to simplify the issuing of queries using pull-down menus and "natural" language interfaces. This is an improvement over having managers contact IT staff for development of ad hoc queries, but more can and should be done to increase the independence of managers and analysts.

What should we do? Try to keep the tables simple and understandable. When possible keep tables in 3rd normal form to keep queries simple. If we anticipate that complex nested subqueries will be needed, we need to rethink the design of the tables. Overall, I question the need to write complex and convoluted SQL for decision support queries. If the data store is understandable and well-designed, non IT folks can be more independent and autonomous.

Let's look at some queries from http://philip.greenspun.com/sql/complex-queries.html:

What users have contributed extensively to our discussion forum?

SELECT user_id, count(*) AS how_many
FROM bboard
GROUP BY user_id
ORDER BY how_many desc;

The result was 7348 rows selected. So we can modify the query to select more recent queries.

SELECT user_id, count(*) AS how_many
FROM bboard
WHERE posting_time + 60 > sysdate
GROUP BY user_id
ORDER BY how_many desc;

Adding the criterion in the WHERE clause reduces the result set to 1120 rows. We still have problems because the initial question was vague. Let's write a more specific and narrowed question.

What users have posted at least 30 messages in the past 60 days, ranked in descending order of volume?

SELECT user_id, count(*) AS how_many
FROM bboard
WHERE posting_time + 60 > sysdate
GROUP BY user_id
HAVING count(*) >= 30
ORDER BY how_many desc;

USER_ID HOW_MANY
---------- ----------
34375 80
34004 79
37903 49
41074 46
42485 46
35387 30
42453 30

7 rows selected.

Can some managers and analysts get this complex query figured out? YES, I am sure that some can. Is it worth the investment to train them to reduce the load on IT staff? YES, I think so.

We can teach managers and business analysts to ask clear questions and translate them into SQL!

These examples are part of SQL for Web Nerds by Philip Greenspun.

Technorati Tags: Decision Support Queries, Business Intelligence, Decision Support .