You all know how useful predictive analytics are for your business, but what about watching predictive analytics in action to see who will be playing the upcoming NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament?
Does Vegas know about this software? Maybe the oddsmakers use it themselves to determine the spread in the biggest gambling event/season of the year? Will the developers have to go back to the drawing board when the field is increased to 96 or even opened to all Division 1 teams?
Here's the link to the newly updated "Dance Card" (Note: Internet Explorer works better for this link than Firefox) formula developed by Jay Coleman of the University of North Florida, Mike DuMond of Charles River Associates, and Allen Lynch of Mercer University. The Dance Card is a formula designed to predict which teams will receive at-large tournament bids from the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee. SAS Institute Inc. is the maker of the software package used to develop the Dance Card.
Over the 15-year period from 1994 through 2008, the original Dance Card correctly predicted 476 of the 512 available at-large Tournament slots (or 93%). Over the 9-year period (2000 through 2008) for which the original Dance Card was used since its initial development in 1999, it correctly predicted 284 out of the 307 available at-large Tournament slots (92.5%). The formula's best years were in 2001 and in 2005, when it correctly predicted 33 of the 34 available at-large Tournament slots (or 97% accuracy).
The newly updated and modified Dance Card correctly predicted 32 of the 34 available at-large slots in 2009, the first season in which it was used to make predictions. Over the 10 years of data (1999 through 2008) on which its development was based, it would have correctly predicted 331 of the 341 available at-large Tournament slots, or 97.1% accuracy (i.e., it would have averaged one at-large slot missed per year).
It makes me wonder if Vegas know about this software? Maybe the oddsmakers use it themselves to determine the spread in the biggest gambling event/season of the year. Will the developers have to go back to the drawing board when the field is increased to 96 or even opened to all Division 1 teams?
The site will be updated daily this week and then multiple times on selection Sunday.
Does Vegas know about this software? Maybe the oddsmakers use it themselves to determine the spread in the biggest gambling event/season of the year? Will the developers have to go back to the drawing board when the field is increased to 96 or even opened to all Division 1 teams?
Here's the link to the newly updated "Dance Card" (Note: Internet Explorer works better for this link than Firefox) formula developed by Jay Coleman of the University of North Florida, Mike DuMond of Charles River Associates, and Allen Lynch of Mercer University. The Dance Card is a formula designed to predict which teams will receive at-large tournament bids from the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee. SAS Institute Inc. is the maker of the software package used to develop the Dance Card.
Over the 15-year period from 1994 through 2008, the original Dance Card correctly predicted 476 of the 512 available at-large Tournament slots (or 93%). Over the 9-year period (2000 through 2008) for which the original Dance Card was used since its initial development in 1999, it correctly predicted 284 out of the 307 available at-large Tournament slots (92.5%). The formula's best years were in 2001 and in 2005, when it correctly predicted 33 of the 34 available at-large Tournament slots (or 97% accuracy).
The newly updated and modified Dance Card correctly predicted 32 of the 34 available at-large slots in 2009, the first season in which it was used to make predictions. Over the 10 years of data (1999 through 2008) on which its development was based, it would have correctly predicted 331 of the 341 available at-large Tournament slots, or 97.1% accuracy (i.e., it would have averaged one at-large slot missed per year).
It makes me wonder if Vegas know about this software? Maybe the oddsmakers use it themselves to determine the spread in the biggest gambling event/season of the year. Will the developers have to go back to the drawing board when the field is increased to 96 or even opened to all Division 1 teams?
The site will be updated daily this week and then multiple times on selection Sunday.
Posted March 8, 2010 3:06 PM
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